Thursday, December 2, 2010

Europa Endlos

One exercise that I used to do quite often, back in the days when I was a "professional" trader (that is to say, a trader with other people's money), was to make up improbable scenarios and justify / explain them.

Part of my motivation for this exercise was to be intentionally and deliberately contrarian. Saying No when the market says Yes is a long-term profitable strategy in itself, irrespective of the underlying fundamentals. (Some day I will write a longer post on why this should be the case).

Another part of my motivation was to have fun. There's nothing like donning a tin-foil hat to enliven a drab afternoon trading session.

But the most important part of my motivation was a serious one: to avoid confirmation bias. Quoting Wikipedia: "Confirmation bias is the tendency for people to favor information that confirms their preconceptions or hypotheses, regardless of whether the information is true."

This was something I had to constantly guard against in my career as a trader. Given the sheer volume of market data that I was constantly barraged by, and the necessity of somehow filtering that data, it was essential to make sure that my filters were unbiased. Considering alternative points of view not tainted by a priori estimates of "probability" was an excellent way of maintaining filter neutrality. Hence the contrarian game.

Here's an example of how to play. Right now the newspapers are full of the Irish bailout and the fear of contagion in other Eurozone economies ("PIIGS-hooey"). You might think that this somewhat fraught state of affairs would lead to a decline in the Euro, and indeed that is the consensus opinion. So your task is to be contrarian and invent a rationale for going long the Euro, despite (or perhaps because of) these macro currents.

And here's such a rationale. Assume the crisis gets worse. Assume contagion in the form of inexorably rising bond yields spreads to Portugal, then Spain, then Italy. The worse the crisis gets, the less possible it is for the centre to bail out the periphery. The only option left is default, and possibly exit. But what happens after that? As successive dominoes fall, the common currency zone shrinks until only healthy core countries (read: Germany) remain. The Euro ends up looking a lot like the old Deutsche Mark. Freed of all its baggage, it begins to rally. Voila!

Note that I don't actually believe this scenario will eventuate, at least not with a high probability and not in the near term. But at the very least, thinking through a scenario like this (replete with path-dependency and feedback effects) makes it difficult to simple say "Europe in crisis, Euro goes down" and use that as a guide to trading. Life is more complicated than that.

97 comments:

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      Hello, I am Andrew Thompson currently living in CT USA, God has bless me with two kids and a lovely Wife, I promise to share this Testimony because of God favor in my life, 2days ago I was in desperate need of money so I thought of having a loan then I ran into wrong hands who claimed to be loan lender not knowing he was a scam. he collected 1,500.00 USD from me and refuse to email me since then I was confuse, but God came to my rescue, one faithful day I went to church after the service I share idea with a friend and she introduce me to LEXIE LOAN COMPANY, she said she was given 98,000.00 USD by MR LEXIE , THE MANAGING DIRECTOR OF LEXIE LOAN COMPANY. So I collected his email Address , he told me the rules and regulation and I followed, then after processing of the Documents, he gave me my loan of 55,000.00 USD... So if you are interested in a loan you can as well contact him on this Email: Lexieloancompany@yahoo.com or text +1(816) 892-6958 thanks, I am sure he will also help you.

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    2. How I Was Rescued By A God Fearing And Trusted Lender {Lexieloancompany@yahoo.com}..

      Hello, I am Andrew Thompson currently living in CT USA, God has bless me with two kids and a lovely Wife, I promise to share this Testimony because of God favor in my life, 2days ago I was in desperate need of money so I thought of having a loan then I ran into wrong hands who claimed to be loan lender not knowing he was a scam. he collected 1,500.00 USD from me and refuse to email me since then I was confuse, but God came to my rescue, one faithful day I went to church after the service I share idea with a friend and she introduce me to LEXIE LOAN COMPANY, she said she was given 98,000.00 USD by MR LEXIE , THE MANAGING DIRECTOR OF LEXIE LOAN COMPANY. So I collected his email Address , he told me the rules and regulation and I followed, then after processing of the Documents, he gave me my loan of 55,000.00 USD... So if you are interested in a loan you can as well contact him on this Email: Lexieloancompany@yahoo.com or text +1(816) 892-6958 thanks, I am sure he will also help you.

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    ReplyDelete
  26. Hello, I am Malissa Delh, currently living in New jersey city, USA. I am a widow at the moment with three kids and i was stuck in a financial situation in April 2014 and i needed to refinance and pay my bills. I tried seeking loans from various loan firms both private and corporate but never with success, and most banks declined my credit. But as God would have it, I was introduced to a Man of God a private loan lender who gave me a loan of $85,000USD and today am a business owner and my kids are doing well at the moment, if you must contact any firm with reference to securing a loan without collateral , no credit check, no co signer with just 3% interest rate and better repayment plans and schedule, please contact Mr James Lewis. He doesn’t know that am doing this but am so happy now and i decided to let people know more about him and also i want God to bless him more.You can contact him through his email: amacoloancompany@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  27. Specialist in Financial Issues.

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  28. Hello my dear people , I am Anita Frank, currently living in New jersey city, USA. I am a widow at the moment with three kids and i was stuck in a financial situation in April 2015 and i needed to refinance and pay my bills. I tried seeking loans from various loan firms both private and corporate but never with success, and most banks declined my credit ,do not full prey to those hoodlums at there that call them self money lender they are all scam , all they want is your money and you well not hear from them again they have done it to me twice before I met Mr. Wilson Edwards the most interesting part of it is that my loan was transfer to me within 74hours so I will advice you to contact Mr. Edwards if you are interested in getting loan and you are sure you can pay him back on time you can contact him via email……… (wilsonedwardsloancompany@gmail.com) No credit check, no co signer with just 2% interest rate and better repayment plans and schedule if you must contact any firm with reference to securing a loan without collateral then contact Mr. Wilson Edwards today for your loan
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  29. Hello my dear people , I am Anita Frank, currently living in New jersey city, USA. I am a widow at the moment with three kids and i was stuck in a financial situation in April 2015 and i needed to refinance and pay my bills. I tried seeking loans from various loan firms both private and corporate but never with success, and most banks declined my credit ,do not full prey to those hoodlums at there that call them self money lender they are all scam , all they want is your money and you well not hear from them again they have done it to me twice before I met Mr. Wilson Edwards the most interesting part of it is that my loan was transfer to me within 74hours so I will advice you to contact Mr. Edwards if you are interested in getting loan and you are sure you can pay him back on time you can contact him via email……… (wilsonedwardsloancompany@gmail.com) No credit check, no co signer with just 2% interest rate and better repayment plans and schedule if you must contact any firm with reference to securing a loan without collateral then contact Mr. Wilson Edwards today for your loan
    They offer all kind of categories of loan they
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    ReplyDelete
  30. Hello everyone my name is Anna Barger,am here to testify how i was scammed. I was in need of a loan,and i applied from various loan lenders from this very site.They asked me to pay some amount of money at different basis but i never get my loan, this was how i lost the sum of 5000USD, I was now in debt because i borrowed the money from a friend. One day a friend of mine introduce me to Elvin Morrison, he told me how he has helped him with loan at several cases without any delay I was scared and never believe him, he urge me to trust him this was how i as introduce to him through his email {elvinloancompany@yahoo.com }, he told me he will offer me the loan that i only need to be comply with them.I did as he told me and without any delay,i received my loan as he earlier promise.Am here to tell you that most of the loan lenders in this site are scammers. If you truly need a genuine loan please meet Elvin Morrison through his email elvinloancompany@yahoo.com ,He is a registered reliable loan lender.

    ReplyDelete
  31. My name is Mr Bryan Roland and i am the happiest person in the whole wide world today and i told myself that any lender that rescue my family from our poor situation, i will tell the name of the company to the whole wild world and i am so happy to say that my family is back for good because i was in need of a loan of $100,000 to start my life all over as i am a single dad with 4 kids and the whole world seemed like it was hanging on me until i met the GOD sent loan lender that changed my life and that of my family, a GOD fearing lender, Mr Roy, he was the Savior GOD sent to rescue my family and at first i thought it was not going to be possible until i received my loan of $100,000 on the 5th/Jun/2015 and i will advise any one who is in genuine need of a loan to contact Mr.Roy via email at barclaysloanservice247@yahoo.com because he is the most understanding and kind hearten lender based in London (England) +447031957933.

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  32. Good day Loan Seekers Solution for your financial problems......
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  33. ATTENTION NEEDED.......
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  34. ATTENTION NEEDED.......
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  35. Good day Loan Seekers Solution for your financial problems......
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  39. IMPORTANT INFORMATION !!!! PLEASE READ !!!!


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    ReplyDelete
  40. Good everyone.
    My name Mrs, Renee Phillips, i am from USA CA , i am married, i have been searching for a genuine loan company for the past 2 years and all i got was bunch of scams who made me to trust them and at the end of the day, the took all my money and left me moneyless, all my hope was lost, i got confused and frustrated, i lost my job and find it very difficult to feed my family, i never wanted to do anything will loan companies on net anymore, so went to borrow some money from a friend, i told her all that happened and she said that she can help me, that she knows a loan company that can help me, that she just got a loan from them, he directed me on how to apply for the loan, i did as he told me, i applied, i never believed but i tried and to my surprise i got the loan in 24 hours, i could not believe my eyes, i am happy and rich today and i am thanking God that such loan companies like this still exist upon this fraud stars all over the places, please i advise everyone out there who are in need of loan to go for Mr. Robert .M. Clark Email via ; ( robert.clark071@gmail.com ). he did not know am doing this for him,but i just have to do it because a lost of people are out there who are in need for a loan., they will never fails, your life shall change as mine did.

    Thanks and Good Luck.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Hello every one here my name is Dr emua, I am a spiritualist, I have help too many persons in the past, and am here to help many people again, I see the hardship every body are facing and I want to help as many persons that need my help, I have powers to invoke money, any currency is what I invoke, this has nothing to do with evil things, this is a gift I was born with, and I must let everyone here to know this, if I invoke money for you, you must spend it wisely, you are not to tell me the amount you need, am to tell you what I will invoke for you, you can contact me with my email address dremuahelphome@gmail.com or add me on Whats-app +2349051177568 or add me on Facebook Emua home, this is for people who really need help.

    ReplyDelete
  42. God has bless me with three kids and a loving husband, i promise to share this testimony because of God favor in my life, 2 months ago i was in desperate need of money, so i thought of having a loan then i ran in to wrong hands called Mr Frank Williams, who claimed to be a loan lender not knowing he was a big scam, he collected $5,000 from me and refuse to email me, after i have send him my money, since then i was contuse, but God came to my rescue, one faithful Sunday i went to church after the service i share idea with a church member and she introduce me to a loan agency called Destiny Brown said he was given $200,000 by the loan agency, i collected the loan agency email address and his phone number, and i emailed them on Monday morning, he told me the rules and regulation and i followed, after processing of the documents he gave me a loan of $100,000, anyone can contact him through his email: destinybrownloanfirm@gmail.com and i know that he must lend you any amount of you need, because he is the best loan company in the worlds thanks to you all

    ReplyDelete
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  46. Are you a business man or woman? Do you need funds to start up your own business? Do you need loan to settle your debt or pay off your bills or start a nice business? Do you need funds to finance your project? We Offers guaranteed loan services of any amount and to any part of the world for (Individuals, Companies, Realtor and Corporate Bodies) at our superb interest rate of 3%. For application and more information send replies to the following E-mail address: quickcashinvestment2933@gmail.com

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  48. How I Was Rescued By A God Fearing Lender {Lexieloancompany@yahoo.com}..

    Hello, I am Andrew Thompson currently living in CT USA, God has bless me with two kids and a lovely Wife, I promise to share this Testimony because of God favor in my life, 2days ago I was in desperate need of money so I thought of having a loan then I ran into wrong hands who claimed to be loan lender not knowing he was a scam. he collected 1,500.00 USD from me and refuse to email me since then I was confuse, but God came to my rescue, one faithful day I went to church after the service I share idea with a friend and she introduce me to LEXIE LOAN COMPANY, she said she was given 98,000.00 USD by MR LEXIE , THE MANAGING DIRECTOR OF LEXIE LOAN COMPANY. So I collected his email Address , he told me the rules and regulation and I followed, then after processing of the Documents, he gave me my loan of 55,000.00 USD... So if you are interested in a loan you can as well contact him on this Email: Lexieloancompany@yahoo.com or text +1(816) 892-6958 thanks, I am sure he will also help you.

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  49. How I Was Rescued By A God Fearing And Trusted Lender {Lexieloancompany@yahoo.com}..

    Hello, I am Andrew Thompson currently living in CT USA, God has bless me with two kids and a lovely Wife, I promise to share this Testimony because of God favor in my life, 2days ago I was in desperate need of money so I thought of having a loan then I ran into wrong hands who claimed to be loan lender not knowing he was a scam. he collected 1,500.00 USD from me and refuse to email me since then I was confuse, but God came to my rescue, one faithful day I went to church after the service I share idea with a friend and she introduce me to LEXIE LOAN COMPANY, she said she was given 98,000.00 USD by MR LEXIE , THE MANAGING DIRECTOR OF LEXIE LOAN COMPANY. So I collected his email Address , he told me the rules and regulation and I followed, then after processing of the Documents, he gave me my loan of 55,000.00 USD... So if you are interested in a loan you can as well contact him on this Email: Lexieloancompany@yahoo.com or text +1(816) 892-6958 thanks, I am sure he will also help you.

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  50. Hello, Lakewood Financial Institutions is at it again, we give loan to both local and international client in need of a loan. And we give @ 2% rate to all client, so you can contact us via E-mail, lakewook_financialinstitutions@consultant.com

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  51. Hello ,
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  53. My name is Isabella Leta Terra i am from United States of America i just got my loan from Mrs Mirinda Liliana loan company they are the most lovely loan company i have ever came across with i applied for a loan from them yesterday and the only thing i did was pay the transfer fee which they said i should pay and immediately i make the payment in the next 24 hours time i was with my loan sorry i can not say how much they helped me with but it is a large amount of money so everyone if you need a real loan this is the right loan company to contact there mail address is mirindaliliana.loans2016@gmail.com

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  54. Hello everyone my name is Twila Fanny am from Mexico i just received my loan now from Mrs Mirinda Liliana loan company it has not been long i received my loan from them i got my loan from them today and now as am posting this message i am very happy this company is real great so anyone that need a loan contact this company they are real great there mail is mirindaliliana.loans2016@gmail.com

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  55. Hello Every one,

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    Mrs Waiter Morison

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  56. Hello ,
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  58. Hello Everybody,
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  59. We have a direct genuine provider for BG/SBLC specifically for lease, at leasing price of 4+2 of face value, Issuance by HSBC London/Hong Kong or any other AA rated Bank in Europe, Middle East or USA.

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  61. DO YOU NEED A LOAN TO START A BEFITTING NEW YEAR!!!!!!
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  63. WE OFFER ALL KIND OF LOANS – APPLY FOR AFFORDABLE LOANS.

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  65. HOW I GOT MY LOAN FROM A REAL AND LEGITIMATE LOAN COMPANY

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  67. DO YOU NEED A LOAN TO START A BEFITTING NEW YEAR!!!!!!

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  69. DO YOU WANT A PERSONAL/BUSINESS/INVESTMENT LOAN? LOAN IS HERE FOR YOU

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  73. DO YOU WANT A PERSONAL/BUSINESS/INVESTMENT LOAN?

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    *Refinancing Loans
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  74. We are Russell Financial Company Ltd located in America and other Europe countries, we offers both personal and investment loans to meet your needs and demands, We also render both secured and unsecured loan services for debt consolidation, unexpected expenses Or home improvement, business, Project and more. Our services is cheap and affordable at the annual interest rate of 3%.

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  75. We are Russell Financial Company Ltd located in America and other Europe countries, we offers both personal and investment loans to meet your needs and demands, We also render both secured and unsecured loan services for debt consolidation, unexpected expenses Or home improvement, business, Project and more. Our services is cheap and affordable at the annual interest rate of 3%.

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    ReplyDelete
  76. We are Russell Financial Company Ltd located in America and other Europe countries, we offers both personal and investment loans to meet your needs and demands, We also render both secured and unsecured loan services for debt consolidation, unexpected expenses Or home improvement, business, Project and more. Our services is cheap and affordable at the annual interest rate of 3%.

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